Research

The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Board or Federal Reserve System.

Publications


Uncertainty and Growth Disasters 

with Boyan Jovanovic (NYU)

Review of Economic Dynamics, Forthcoming


Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response? 

with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)

AEJ: Macro, October 2021

Macro and Financial Uncertainty Index (Updated every February and August) Last Update: 2021 March


COVID19 and The Costs of Deadly Disasters

with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)

AEA Papers and Proceedings 111, May 2021, pp 366-370

Version published in CEPR COVID Economics Issue 9. NBER Working Paper No. 26987


Capital Share Risk in U.S. Asset Pricing (Appendix)

with Martin Lettau (Berkeley Hass) and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)

Journal of Finance 74(4), August 2019, pp. 1753-1792.


Fed Policy Papers/Notes

Contribution to What is Certain about Uncertainty, International Finance Discussion Papers (1294), Fed Board, July 2020 (Under R&R at JEL)


Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy  (Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson), FEDS Notes, October 2019


Working Papers

The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty (April 2021)

with Juan M. Londono (FRB) and Beth Anne Wilson (FRB)


Biases Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations (July 2021, Under R&R at AER)

with Francesco Bianchi (Duke)  and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)


Private Equity and Growth (March 2021, Under R&R at JEG)

with Boyan Jovanovic (NYU) and Peter L. Rousseau (Vanderbilt) 


Housing Cycles and Exchange Rates  (April 2021, Under R&R at Management Science)

with Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)


The Causal Effect of the Dollar on Trade (April 2021)

with Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (FRB) and Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)

CESifo working Paper No. 8727


Housing Risk and the Cross-Section of Returns Across Many Asset Classes (April 2021)

with Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)


Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions (Jan. 2020, Slides for AEA2020)

with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)

NBER Working Paper No. 23225


Heterogeneous Intermediaries and Asset Prices  (June 2019, Under Reject & Resub.)


Selected Work in Progress/Major Revisions


Momentum Undervalue Puzzle (with Sydney Ludvigson and Martin Lettau)

Competition and Implementation Cycles 

Asset Prices and Dynamic Intermediation Chains in OTC Markets