Research

The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Reserve System.

Publications

Private Equity and Growth 

with Boyan Jovanovic (NYU) and Peter L. Rousseau (Vanderbilt) 

Journal of Economic Growth, Vol 27 (3), September 2022, pp. 315–363


Biases Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

with Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins)  and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)

American Economic Review, Vol 112, No.7, July 2022, pp. 2269-2315


What is Certain about Uncertainty (A survey on uncertainty measures)

Journal of Economic LiteratureForthcoming

Co-author list (All from FRB): Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, John H. Rogers, Bo Sun,Deepa Datta,Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Olesya V. Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Marius Rodriguez, Ilknur Zer


Uncertainty and Growth Disasters 

with Boyan Jovanovic (NYU)

Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 44, April 2022, Pages 33-64


Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response? 

with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)

AEJ: Macro 13 (4), October 2021, pp. 369-410.

Macro and Financial Uncertainty Index (Updated every February and August) Last Update: 2022 August


COVID19 and The Costs of Deadly Disasters

with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)

AEA Papers and Proceedings 111, May 2021, pp 366-370

Version published in CEPR COVID Economics Issue 9. NBER Working Paper No. 26987


Capital Share Risk in U.S. Asset Pricing (Appendix)

with Martin Lettau (Berkeley Hass) and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)

Journal of Finance 74(4), August 2019, pp. 1753-1792.


Fed Policy Papers/Notes

Global Real Economic Uncertainty and COVID-19  (Ranie Lin and Juan M. Londono), FEDS Notes, February 2022

Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy  (Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson), FEDS Notes, October 2019


Working Papers

Growth through Learning (November 2022)

with Boyan Jovanovic (NYU) 


Monetary-Based Asset Pricing: A Mixed-Frequency Structural Approach (October 2022)

with Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins)  and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)


The Causal Effect of the Dollar on Trade Price (October 2022)

with Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (FRB) and Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)

CESifo Working Paper No. 8727


Housing Cycles and Exchange Rates  (June 2022), Under R&R at Management Science, Internet Appendix

with Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)  


The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty (May 2022), Under R&R at JMCB

with Juan M. Londono (FRB) and Beth Anne Wilson (FRB)


Housing Risk and the Cross-Section of Returns Across Many Asset Classes (April 2021)

with Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)


Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions (Jan. 2020, Slides for AEA2020)

with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)

NBER Working Paper No. 23225


Heterogeneous Intermediaries and Asset Prices  (June 2019, Under Reject & Resub.)


Selected Work in Progress/Major Revisions


Momentum Undervalue Puzzle (with Sydney Ludvigson and Martin Lettau)

Competition and Implementation Cycles 

Asset Prices and Dynamic Intermediation Chains in OTC Markets