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Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response? 

with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)

AEJ: Macro, Forthcoming

NBER Working Paper No. 21803, Media Coverage: Bloomberg View

Macro and Financial Uncertainty Index (Updated every February and August) Last Update: 2020 August.

Capital Share Risk in U.S. Asset Pricing (Appendix)

with Martin Lettau (Berkeley Hass) and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)

Journal of Finance 74(4), August 2019, pp. 1753-1792.

NBER Working Paper No. 20744, Replication Files

Policy Notes

Contribution to What is Certain about Uncertainty, International Finance Discussion Papers (1294), Fed Board, July 2020. Comprehensive Survey from Fed Board Economists. 

Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy  (Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson), FEDS Notes, October 2019

Working Papers

Biases Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations (October 2020)

with Francesco Bianchi (Duke)  and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)

Uncertainty and Growth Disasters (September 2020, Under R&R)

with Boyan Jovanovic (NYU)

COVID19 and The Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters (September, 2020)

with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)

Version published in CEPR COVID Economics Issue 9. NBER Working Paper No. 26987

Private Equity and Growth (October 2020)

with Boyan Jovanovic (NYU) and Peter L. Rousseau (Vanderbilt) 

Housing Risk and the Cross-Section of Returns Across Many Asset Classes (May 2020)

with Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)

Housing Cycles and Exchange Rates  (April 2020, Internet Appendix)

with Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)

Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions (Jan. 2020, Slides for AEA2020)

with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)

NBER Working Paper No. 23225

Heterogeneous Intermediaries and Asset Prices  (June 2019, Under R&R)

Competition and Implementation Cycles (June 2019)

Selected Work in Progress

Momentum Undervalue Puzzle (with Sydney Ludvigson and Martin Lettau)

Asset Prices and Dynamic Intermediation Chains in OTC Markets (Under Major Revision)