The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Reserve System.
Publications
The Financial Channel of the Exchange Rate and Global Trade, forthcoming at Review of Financial Studies
with Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (FRB)
The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty
with Juan M. Londono (FRB) and Beth Anne Wilson (FRB)
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 57(5), August 2025, Pages 1103-1133
Housing Risk and the Cross-Section of Returns Across Many Asset Classes
with Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)
Real Estate Economics, Volume 53(2), March 2025, Pages 326-351
Housing Cycles and Exchange Rates (Appendix)
with Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)
Management Science, Volume 70(9), September 2024, Pages 5627-6482
Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 50, October 2023, Pages 211-234
What is Certain about Uncertainty (A survey on uncertainty measures)
Journal of Economic Literature, Vol 61 (2), June 2023
Co-author list (All from FRB): Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, John H. Rogers, Bo Sun, Deepa Datta, Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Olesya V. Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Marius Rodriguez, Ilknur Z
with Boyan Jovanovic (NYU) and Peter L. Rousseau (Vanderbilt)
Journal of Economic Growth, Vol 27 (3), September 2022, pp. 315–363
Biases Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
with Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins) and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)
American Economic Review, Vol 112, No.7, July 2022, pp. 2269-2315
Uncertainty and Growth Disasters
Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 44, April 2022, Pages 33-64
Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?
with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)
AEJ: Macro 13 (4), October 2021, pp. 369-410.
Macro and Financial Uncertainty Index (Updated every February and August) Last Update: 2025 August
COVID19 and The Costs of Deadly Disasters
with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)
AEA Papers and Proceedings 111, May 2021, pp 366-370
The version published in CEPR COVID Economics Issue 9. NBER Working Paper No. 26987
Capital Share Risk in U.S. Asset Pricing (Appendix)
with Martin Lettau (Berkeley Hass) and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)
Journal of Finance 74(4), August 2019, pp. 1753-1792.
Fed Policy Papers/Notes
Risk and Uncertainty in a Post-Pandemic World (Juan M. Londono and Ilknur Zer), FEDS Notes, July 2025
Costs of Rising Uncertainty (Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson), FEDS Notes, April 2025
The Global Transmission of Inflation Uncertainty (Juan M. Londono and Thomas Li), FEDS Notes, January 2025
Global Inflation Uncertainty and its Economic Effects (Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson), FEDS Notes, September 2023
Global Real Economic Uncertainty and COVID-19 (Ranie Lin and Juan M. Londono), FEDS Notes, February 2022
Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy (Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson), FEDS Notes, October 2019
Working Papers
The Prestakes of Stock Market Investing (Oct 2025)
with Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins), Do Lee (NYU), Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)
Dissecting Trade Uncertainty (Oct 2025)
with Juan M. Londono (FRB) and Sophia Qin (Stanford)
Transmission Growth-at-Risk (May 2025)
with Viktors Stebunovs (FRB) and Judit Temesvary (FRB)
U.S. Real Economics Uncertainty and the International Stock Market: GVAR Approach (May 2025), with Tony Sun (FRB)
What Hundreds of Economic News Events Say About Belief Overreaction in the Stock Market (May 2025), R&R at Review of Financial Studies
with Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins) and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)
A Structural Approach to High-Frequency Event Studies: The Fed and Markets as Case History (April 2025)
with Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins) and Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU)
The Unseen Cost of Inflation: Measuring Inflation Uncertainty and Its Economic Repercussions (April 2025)
with Juan M. Londono (FRB) and Beth Anne Wilson (FRB)
Learning from Mistakes (Feb. 2025)
Heterogeneous Intermediaries and Asset Prices: A Semiparametric Approach (July 2024), Under R&R at JFQA
An updated and streamlined version of my JMP (2018)
Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions (Jan. 2020, Slides for AEA2020)
with Sydney C. Ludvigson (NYU) and Serena Ng (Columbia)
NBER Working Paper No. 23225
Selected Work in Progress/Major Revisions
Momentum Undervalue Puzzle (with Sydney Ludvigson and Martin Lettau)
Competition and Implementation Cycles
Asset Prices and Dynamic Intermediation Chains in OTC Markets
The Causal Effect of the Dollar on Trade Price with Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (FRB) and Shaojun Zhang (OSU Fisher)
Sai Ma 